Free MLB Picks & Predictions - Today's Best Expert MLB Bets (2024)

Pick - Prop

Shane Baz has only thrown 94 innings this year but that's 94 innings more than last season and 50+ more than 2022. He is also coming off a season-high 103 pitches, which represented 20 more pitches than his season average entering that start. He has a tough matchup in Philadelphia while his bullpen is fresh after the Tampa Bay Rays stubbornly left Taj Bradley in too long yesterday despite giving up four runs. Baz projects for Under 15 outs today on 82 pitches and is paying -115 at bet365. There could be a chance he has a five-inning limit today coming off a big workload and pitching in his first season after TJ surgery. His 23 walks over 55 innings is also a red flag for efficiency. I'd play this down to -135.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 5 hrs, 30 min ago.

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Pick - Moneyline

After a short stint on the IR, Luis Gil looked to have his mojo again in his first start. That’s when he struck out seven and gave up just one hit to the Chicago Cubs through six innings. That’s bad news for theKansas City Royalsin this matchup. The Royals have avoided striking out a ton through much of the season. The only problem is that it never seemed sustainable, given how much they swing and sometimes chase pitches. It’s caught up with them recently, ranking ninth overall in the last month in strikeout rate and similarly over the last three games.

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Chris Hatfield - Pick Made 3 hrs, 0 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Dean Kremerhas been a machine when it comes to suppressing hits. He’s allowed five hits or fewer in 14 of 21 starts this season, good for a remarkably strong 67% hit rate. Kremer’s numbers are even better away from Oriole Park. He’s gone under this total in eight of 11 road starts (73%) and has averaged just 3.8 hits against. Kremer isn’t just going under the number consistently – he’s doing it with room to spare.

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Todd Cordell - Pick Made 7 hrs, 16 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

It’s a prove-it stretch for Kochanowicz, and he’s finding his way to the tune of a lackluster 4.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 4.86 xFIP. I’m anticipating him having every opportunity to pitch deep into Wednesday’s game, too. Minny has been solid against right-handed pitchers this season with a ninth-ranked .322 wOBA and eighth-ranked .321 on-base percentage, but are in a mini funk of late with the second-lowest BABIP (.249) in baseball over the past two weeks. With Kochanowicz relying primarily on a two-pitch mix and neither offering grading out positively, per FanGraphs, I’m expecting the Twins offense to find its groove against the inexperienced righty.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 9 hrs, 25 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

While King continues to pitch well with a sharp 2.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 3.07 xFIP since the All-Star break, the Mariners have plated 5.5 runs per game with a beefy .350 wOBA and a league-high .354 on-base percentage and 10.6 BB% across the past two weeks.San Diego is in the thick of the NL Wild-Card race and has consistently gone to the bullpen early when needed down the stretch. Additionally, while the dip has been minor, all four of King’s offerings have lower pitch values across his past six starts compared to his first 22 outings of the season, per FanGraphs. The career-high innings and pitch count are catching up to the former reliever.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 9 hrs, 51 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

One of the league’s premier arms, Blake Snell sports a 3.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 17 starts this year. His analytics are even stronger, given that the southpaw owns a 2.79 xERA and ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Entering this matchup in particularly dominant form, Snell has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his past 11 starts. The two-time Cy Young winner boasts a 2-0 mark over that stretch, boasting a 1.42 ERA. Each of those two wins came by a three-run margin.

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Tony Sartori - Pick Made 6 hrs, 49 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

One of the league’s premier arms, Blake Snell sports a 3.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 17 starts this year. His analytics are even stronger, given that the southpaw owns a 2.79 xERA and ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Entering this matchup in particularly dominant form, Snell has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his past 11 starts. The two-time Cy Young winner boasts a 2-0 mark over that stretch, boasting a 1.42 ERA. Each of those two wins came by a three-run margin.

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Tony Sartori - Pick Made 6 hrs, 49 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Similar to the Rhys Hoskins bet, we are targeting a home run prop against Blake Snell, which doesn't necessarily print money, but this is more about the wind at Oracle Park and the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers have batters who crush left-handed pitching, and Contreras is one of them. Against lefties, Contreras is batting .315 with an .886 OPS, while last season, he hit .357 with a 1.087 OPS against southpaws. Not only will Contreras be playing in a ballpark with 21 mph winds blowing out to center field, but he also had 3 hits on Tuesday night at Oracle Park against the Giants, so the vibes will be high for him. This prop is trading at +800 at FanDuel, and at that price, we have an edge, as the projections suggest this should be closer to +612.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 9 hrs, 15 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Rhys Hoskins will be facing Blake Snell on Wednesday, and while Snell isn't necessarily a starting pitcher you'd target for a home run prop, did I mention the wind is blowing out to center field at Oracle Park at 21 mph? Hoskins has hit a home run against Snell in the past and is known for crushing left-handed starting pitchers throughout his career. FanDuel is offering Hoskins at +680, while the rest of the market is closer to +600. The projections indicate a healthy probability gap we can exploit here, as they have Hoskins priced at +406 to hit a home run on Wednesday.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 9 hrs, 35 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Michael Conforto made the Dingers for Dogs betting card on Tuesday, as multiple people here at Covers suggested we bet on him, only for him to get the golden sombrero by striking out in all four of his at-bats. I have this working theory in home run betting that players always homer the day after you bet on them, and while not mathematically proven, this feels like the spot after a golden sombrero on Tuesday. In all seriousness, the wind is blowing out to center field at Oracle Park at 21 mph, and FanDuel is off-market here, trading Conforto at +750, while the rest of the market has this priced closer to +600.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 9 hrs, 45 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

After being unable to generate strikeouts for much of the year, Bobby Miller has flipped the script lately by notching eight Ks against the Angels in his last start and nine Ks against the Rays two outings before that. Diving into those games, he had a 31% CSW% against the Angels and a 35% CSW% against the Rays. His season-long mark of 24.9% is well down from the 28.2% he posted a year ago, so his recent ability to generate both called and swinging strikes is a positive sign that he’s figuring some things out on the mound.There are strikeouts to be had against a Cubs lineup with a 24.4% K-rate against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days.

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 8 hrs, 18 min ago.

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